فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال پانزدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 55، پاییز 1400)

One of the goals of government intervention in the economy, which is done by tax instruments, is to create economic stability. Now the question arises whether taxes have been used as a tool for economic stabilization? For this purpose, the effect of direct and indirect taxes on the fluctuations of Iran's economic cycles has been studied. To estimate the models of this research, Vector Auto Regression method by quarterly data from q1-1372 to q3-1397. The interesting results of this study are that, unlike empirical studies conducted in some other countries, direct taxes have not had a significant effect on reducing fluctuations in economic cycles. Also, the effect of indirect taxes on economic cycles is faster than direct taxes. The policy proposal of this research is to use more of the country's tax capacity to better perform the government's stabilizing task in the economy, especially the reform of tax bases.

This article deals with how trade and exchange rates shocks of major trading partners affect the Iranian economy. For this purpose, quarterly data of 10 major Iranian trading countries, including Brazil, China, Germany, India, Italy, Korea, Turkey, Russia, UAE and Switzerland during the period 1996 to 2019 has been used. Econometric parameters has been estimated by Global Vector Autoregressive approach. The modeling results show that the increase in the real exchange rate in Brazil, in some cases, increases the real exchange rate in Iran. Rising real exchange rate in China first reduces and then increases the real exchange rate in Iran. In addition, Increasing China's trade increases the level of Iran's trade. According to the results, when Iran's imports from a country are higher, it is more affected by exchange rate shocks in that country, which can be seen in response to real exchange rate shocks in China.

This paper examines the relationship between government debt and corporate capital structures (financing choices) for firms listed in Tehran stock market, during 1390-98. The results show that the there is a negative and significant relationship between government debt and corporate capital structure (financial leverage), although the estimated coefficient is relatively small. In other words, we can conclude that the financial crowding out effect is confirmed in Iranian companies. Also, the results show that corporate with larger size and more profitable are more likely to react to changes in government debt. In other words, if corporates have larger size and more profitability, then the financial crowding out effect is greater. Hence, the key conclusion is corporate managers should prioritize revenue diversification and profitability strategies in the reaction to government debt policies.

Data envelopment analysis is taken widespread into consideration in the various science to evaluate the relative efficiency of decision making units that have a multi-stage network structure. In this paper, a bargaining game model is extended to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with a multi-stage network structure. Moreover, each stage of network data envelopment analysis (DEAN) is considered as a game player. Accordingly, the allocated fixed cost is divided among all the stages such that the best allocation is made to the best stage. With a newer idea, the intermediate stage in the data envelopment analysis of three-stage networks is considered as a common player in the bargaining game, so that the stage plays a significant role in maximizing the performance of network. Next, an alternative approach to allocating a common fixed cost in a multi-stage network based on the bargaining game is proposed. Finally, as direct apllication of the performance of the proposed models some examples are given.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of financial and trade liberalization on stock market fluctuations in 25 selected developing countries between 2001-2019 using a multivariate mushroom model to calculate fluctuations and generalized torque method. Based on the findings of the multivariate mushroom approach, there is a positive and significant relationship between financial and trade liberalization and the stock market fluctuations in this group of countries. Investigating the effect of financial and trade liberalization on stock market volatility using the generalized dynamic torque panel regression model shows a positive relationship between financial and trade liberalization and inflation with stock market volatility and also shows an inverse relationship between per capita income and financial liberalization and trade with it. Based on the results, it is suggested that economic policymakers, when implementing financial and trade liberalization policies, should take it into account that this liberalization is both an opportunity and a threat to domestic capital markets. Accordingly, imposition of financial and trade liberalization measures are recommended simultaneously and in a regulatory context.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of financial development on efficiency of monetary policy in Iran during 1979-2020. The ratio of banks' domestic credit to GDP was considered as an indicator of financial development based on banking sector and ratio of the value of stock market transactions to GDP was considered as an indicator of financial development based on the capital market. In this regard, 4 models were introduced to achieve research objectives and were estimated using the Kalman-Filter approach. The results of estimating the first two models of the research showed that with improvement of financial development indicators, the efficiency of monetary policy in influencing economic growth will decrease. The results of estimating the third and fourth models of the study also showed that effect of financial development indicators on efficiency of monetary policy in impact on inflation has been negative and statistically significant, meaning that with improvement of financial development indicators in country, monetary policies will lead to lower inflation.